Half disappointed, half hope. Or, while disappointed, while hope.
letter from 2009, a monthly wage of the Department of 3G license issuance date, China's 3G market is not as good as imagined. But let us emotionally is, 3G and 3G but because of the changing social, video, VoIP and mobile devices together to accelerate the mobile Internet era. The traditional giants of the relevant stock movements “garden walls” began to collapse at every level, a number of “iron nails of success” is being or will be subversive. 3G era emphasis for the application of innovation means that giants can not everything and they should be given the coalition to remain more living space – which means leaving more for the future possibility of additional value.
old world go away, 3G open the new world, “Shark” and “catfish” coexistence, “long tail” effect is hugely magnified. We are living in the early stages of turmoil and change, so far none of the previous cycle of the company as IBM, Microsoft or Google so dominant. More and more people are from the faster processing capabilities, better user interface, the appearance of smaller, lower prices and wider range of services to benefit. Only those lively, responsive market giants and entrepreneurs, have become the last laugh, “SPL Star”
May 17 this year, “World Telecom Day” theme “Information communication technology make the city a better life.” People's eyes focused on a technology to make life better – 3G on. Last year's May 17, China Unicom's WCDMA trial began commercial operations, marking the carrier's 3G services three fully operational. So far the whole year, the reality is not as good as imagined.
year, the industry widely expects China's 3G users will reach 60 million -8000 million more media reports of operators within the forecast data of millions of users. However, according to the three major carriers have released the statistics, as of the end of May, China Unicom (600050, SH) of 3G subscribers to 6.528 million, China Mobile (00941, HK) was 9.32 million, the Chinese telecommunications (00728, HK) is not specific 3G release by the end of May the number of users, but by the end of April compared to 6.05 million. Clearly, the Chinese 3G users not only far lower than expected, from the beginning of eight ministries and commissions made to reach 150 million by 2011 goal is a long way off.
Deloitte China's telecommunications industry, service sector, Deputy Director, HU Wei believes that the current plight of China's 3G market in Europe in 2003 similar. While 3G services in 2001 opened the first Japanese carrier to develop rapidly, respectively, in 2002 and 2003, the deployment of 3G network operators in South Korea and Europe has become difficult. Until the second half of 2008 to 2009, before the global 3G users thriving trend.
“very optimistic about the industry's expectations, but showed little reaction to the user. One of the most essential reason is that, from 2G to 3G wireless development is not as it was replaced by fixed telephone as a revolutionary breakthrough but the extension and expansion of existing technologies. “she said.
unstoppable technological revolution with the bottom-up compared to the transition from 2G to 3G, operators are more active cross, therefore, that the application created across the market, more to depends on the industry chain parties to consumers Evoked guide. Compared with the 2G, 3G's biggest advantage is the transmission rate significantly improved to handle images, music, video streaming and other forms of media services including web browsing, conference calls, e-commerce and other information services. But not only is the icing on the cake, because it means breaking a number of 3G industry boundaries, such as mobile phone and PC, IT and finance, telecommunications and the Internet. In the past few decades, these areas have already giants everywhere.
opened by the new world of 3G, so the traditional giants of the “garden walls” began to collapse at every level, a number of “iron nails of success” is being or will be subversive. On the one hand, 2G era habits entrenched in the food chain, the top telecom operators have not fully control the industry trend; on the other hand, the user needs extensive and dispersed, to enlarge an already existing trend of more than 10 years, that innovation and service providers will will benefit from, and slow the company will gradually be marginalized.
In this sense, people can still looking forward to 3G. “We have not only seen as a third-generation 3G mobile communication technology, and more see it as a fast access to China's mobile Internet platform.” Mobile commerce service providers Beijing billion U.S. soft-Link Technology Co., Ltd. CEO, said Li Yan, “Technology improve the social needs of the pull and the creation of social wealth will have a major role. 3G is just the beginning, its impact on the future social changes and no doubt. “
thinking change
< br /> 3G in 2009 the first year, the industry has experienced 冰火两重天. January 7, 2009, the Ministry of Industry and operators for the three 3G licenses issued. However, thinking from the Bayeux consulting firm reports that as of first half of 2009, although China has two mobile operators, China Telecom launched 3G services, but six months down the overall number of domestic 3G users only 1.595 million, well less than the industry expected, China Mobile also immediately adjust its annual 3G User Development Goals. End of 2009, data released by the Ministry of Industry show that domestic 3G users more than 15 million people only half the number of loose tone – but only half-tone only.
in accordance with the Ministry of Industry and Minister Li Yi of the expected two and a half after the license issued to three years, three 3G operators will invest 450 billion yuan project, each operator plans to develop at least 5000 users 10000, for 80 million, a total of up to 240 million. However, data from the Ministry of Industry, although in 2009 the direct consumption of 36.4 billion 3G drive, which end up to 29.7 billion consumer and business spending was only 6.7 billion. In other words, the domestic 3G users have used a considerable proportion of 2G is still functional. Media that three major carriers through the early relationship marketing, full marketing, so many users “is 3G”, but this part of the user's activity is low, “no call, no traffic, no boot” of the “three no user “the proportion of school
not hinder the development of two of the biggest stumbling block 3G is the tariff and terminals. People's Network 3G communication channels the latest survey, in a number of factors hinder the spread of 3G, that the “3G rates are too high, consumers can not afford”, “3G devices are not rich and diverse impact of user choice” and “3G function is too exaggerated publicity, application experience poor “consumers as much as 80.21 percent, 74.77 percent and 32.06 percent, the highest of all the factors of the top three.
Objectively speaking, 2009 is positioned in the industry in the eyes of the cloth mesh, the three operators of 3G network construction completed direct investment 160.9 billion yuan, creating the world's largest telecommunications development in the history of construction, Construction of a new record fastest. Operators have distributed attention to “scale” and “profit” win-win, 3G launch in the early choices is the focus of competing high-end users. This led directly to the high tariff.
At present, relying on the construction of China Telecom's existing fixed-line coverage of CDMA2000 most extensive, involving 342 prefecture-level cities in the country, 2,055 counties and more than 6000 towns and cities of China Unicom WCDMA coverage for the 335, China Mobile TD-SCDMA as the 238. With the gradual improvement of network construction, China Telecom and China Unicom have been shown to 3G in 2010 and further into the mainstream market intentions. Early in May, China Unicom 3G package to reduce rates, the high-end sales strategy strategy from the original transfer to the national strategy. Almost the same time, China Telecom Beijing launched 3G phone bill Li Bao minimum 1,200 yuan phone bill giving promotions. The move shows that China Telecom is the CDMA business shifted focus from the overall number of users 3G users, but 3G development focus has shifted from the user on the network card 3G mobile phone users.
The four phases according to China Mobile network planning, the end of 2010, TD network will cover 330 cities nationwide, the overall construction of the base station more than 20 million. However, “TD father,” said Li Shihe senior technology consultant Datang Mobile is that China Mobile's network construction and expansion is progressing too slowly, “if a communication network coverage is not enough, you can not show the advantages. This is Mobile Data Services in the reason for the slow rise. ”
determined according to the original allocation of 3G spectrum resources, China Mobile to get 155 megabytes of the spectrum, but only 20 trillion Unicom, China Unicom's network expansion room for so much less than China Mobile. Li Shihe appears in, after China Mobile, the benefits of expansion in three years to appear. “China Mobile proposed to defeat the WCDMA, a miracle, it is entirely possible.” He said, “Which way all sports car, the key is you put road repair and more wide, narrow roads and cars, of course run faster.”
< br /> However, with China Telecom and China Unicom are backed by a mature industry chain compared to 3G, terminals and applications has been the operation of China Mobile to promote TD obstacles. Former Director of Datang Mobile investment and financing strategy, the current investment in Shenzhen Bank and Credit Group as Chief Investment Officer of Liu Guoyi that, WCDMA and CDMA2000 in Qualcomm, Ericsson, Nokia and other international giants led, after many years of development have established a clear game rules to solve the various sectors of the industry chain to worry about in the inputs. The TD-SCDMA is still in a chaotic state. “In this industry, customer-facing application part, the rules have to be bright, successful models have yet to appear, it is difficult for enterprise risk judgments and investment decisions, how would be willing to invest heavily in?” He laments.
In fact, in 3G the first year of the first few months, saddled with many of “crying wolf” shadow of the terminal manufacturers are taking a wait and see. Example, Tianyu, Lenovo Mobile and other companies active in the market today, even though in both 2G and 3G has been deployed all, but still focus on 2G on; early Internet strategy Nokia has been proposed in October 2009 before TD launched the first mobile phone. Until the 3G really be the trend until the beginning of the conservatives to the evolution of the current radical – they are unwilling to give up any of the markets, all three operators claim to support both the three criteria,
To help the industry chain as soon as the weakest end mature in 2009 put 600 million yuan China Mobile announced a special incentive fund to establish TD terminals, and 9 mobile phone manufacturers and chip makers have signed three cooperation agreements. As of the end of April, China's 3G standard three terminal network model a total of over 586, of which 178 WCDMA terminal models, TD-SCDMA terminal section 242, EV-DO terminals, paragraph 166, the terminal types, including mobile phones, network cards, electronic reader, the Internet and other types of this. But most of the development of TD is still the main domestic manufacturers, the financial strength, technology accumulation and problem solving with international companies still have significant gaps.
third of the world to some extent, 2G era ahead of the other two operators, China Mobile is China's own standard TD was shackled hands and feet. This also makes it 3G era “walled garden” was the first giant attack.
a set of data can be seen from this situation: As of the end of May, the Chinese mobile phone users still to 71.5% on the proportion of populous, China Telecom and China Unicom, the proportion was 9.3% and 19.2%; but the first quarter of this year, the three operators on the share of 3G users were 42.5%, 30.8% and 26.7%, significantly reducing the gap with the 2G era of an independent school big difference in the 3G era, the tripartite balance of power Obviously still remain for a long period of time.
an unidentified person in charge of China Mobile admitted: “China Telecom WCDMA, CDMA2000 and China Unicom are relatively mature industry chain, so a large part of our job is to make users feel better than TD the difference between the other two. “
to promote the popularity of TD-SCDMA mobile phone, China Mobile adopted a” three no's three new three integration “initiative. “Three no's” that is, not for numbers, not changing the card, no registration, to facilitate customers to use TD; “three new” that the new mechanism, new standards, new measurement, to improve the efficiency of 2G and 3G switch, enabling consumers to use TD can be easily switched to 2G, when using the 2G and can easily switch to the TD; “Three fusion” refers to the 2G and 3G network, business and the full integration of the three applications.
Liu Guoyi that, in the 2G era, the most mature of China Mobile's network. China Mobile proposed the integration of networking original intention was to save investment, reduce costs, while keeping the network in the 2G era and operational advantages to the TD on a copy fast. “But China Mobile from network architecture to achieve the integration of 2G and 3G is not easy.” He said, “TD and GSM can share some equipment, such as transmission network, room location, to the tower mounted antenna and so on, but can not share access network, two base station controllers and base station technology are completely different. “
in the May 17 release Sina” 3G launch of the first anniversary of Internet users use the investigation report “, for the three operators commercial launch of 3G brand, China Telecom, “Tianyi” to 36% support the top, China Unicom, “fertile” support was 34%, China Mobile “G3″ to support the lowest, only 30%. This is 8 months before the first 3G Sina findings have changed dramatically in that time, users think that the best 3G operator, China Mobile, the proportion accounted for 65.3%.
around “Tianyi” brand, China Telecom 3G business into the whole business, in the fixed line, broadband, mobile phones bundled marketing walking in front of the three major carriers. In 2009, China Telecom's new mobile users in more than 25 million, far ahead of the other two competitors.
The person in charge of China Mobile, China Telecom's hardware are the best, “China Mobile is no fixed business, business to switch from fixed-mobile service is easy to switch from fixed-mobile services business is difficult.” But he stressed that the first does not mean that the hardware market first, “After all, China's telecommunications market experience than the other two operators.”
in the person's view, China Telecom is currently operational in the SP used the idea to do 3G, “Although China Telecom put forward the concept of Internet phone, but they have had no consideration was particularly full, and even not yet understood what is the Internet phone. ”
although the last one will be commercially available 3G carriers, but the industry's most mature WCDMA enables China Unicom to give full play to the “catfish effect.” Analysys International released data show that the fourth quarter of 2009, China Unicom WCDMA mobile phone sales accounted for nearly half of the 3G market share. As “the first operator apples” in May this year, another flagship 3G Music Phone model launch of Lenovo, China Unicom to adjust the tariff policy and the iPhone 3G sales policy, the month that is added 1.023 million 3G users, break 1 million for the first time a single month.
China Unicom Chairman Chang Xiaobing said the company should strive to make 3G services after three years, the Chinese mobile communications market, accounting for about 20% share. However, Shun Huang Wen Ge Securities analyst said: “The real impact of Unicom value, not simply the number of new 3G users, but the advantages of China Unicom with WCDMA LNP can not be the case of what to grab from the number of high-end mobile users , especially high-end. “
HU Wei said that in the initial stage of 3G, the three operators the opportunity in fact comparable. China Unicom's WCDMA technology, while assigned to the most mature, but the existing customer base is limited, to build on the communication industry chain is also lagging behind places, and not fully highlight the strength; China Mobile's TD industrial chain, although immature, but the company's financial strength the old customer base and large, management is more mature in terms of hardware go faster; China Telecom, although the incumbent operator, but the main strength concentrated in the fixed business, mobile business is relatively weak.
“building in the industrial chain, the three carriers are currently at the stage of learn from each other. our common strategy is that in each round of competition are not backward, regardless of whether there is a clear business model, should give customers a visual experience that rivals some of their own there. “HU Wei said,” China's 3G users is still difficult to measure the Which service is best, with the users, they have a chance to explore more profits. “
war gods
almost as operators” God “exists in general, over the past few years, when people talk about 3G era industries chain changes, people often think that telecom operators will enter the era of the strong Always the Winner. In other words, in the 3G era, operators will be fully integrated mobile terminals and applications directly to consumers. But the reality of view, the extension of cross-industry is becoming a trend. Despite these different areas, most of the giants in the mobile Internet-based technology cycle distribution, but according to international experience, 3G mobile Internet as the key to success is whether a strong position to break the operator. In the mobile Internet era is the backdrop curtain opened, 3G competition looks more like a war gods.
to vigorously promote the mobile operator to pay, for example, on March 10 this year, China Mobile announced through its wholly-owned subsidiary Guangdong Mobile, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank to 39.8 billion yuan Subscription ((600000, SH ) 20% stake in Shanghai Pudong Development Bank to become the second largest shareholder. China Mobile chairman Wang made it clear that shares in Shanghai Pudong Development Bank mainly for mobile phone payment service in China to carry out “playing-based buildings. June 19, China Unicom has also jointly China Union Pay and the Bank of Communications (601328.SH), launched in Shanghai in order to achieve bank payment phone SIM card function Pacific Unicom joint IC debit card. But before that, China Mobile suspended in 2009 the main push of the RF-SIM (2.4GHz ) mobile payment standard, turn the main push CUP-led SIM-PASS (13.56MHz) standard message no longer trade secrets.
Deloitte China's telecommunications industry, service partner Zhao Shanjiang national leadership that, in the mobile phone payment in telecommunication is the most important platform, but the original platform for the banking and the payment of such third-party payment platform Po. the parties certainly want to lead, but three have their advantages, can only be in a specific business relationship between the project by the party temporarily dominant recently. He said: “In the extension of cross-industry cooperation is always the topic, and the shift in the power of cooperation is a mutual process of management and constraints.”
“industry boundaries are broken, we become dependent.” Zhaoshan Jiang said, “The market opportunities opened to more companies, just look to the pivot, who are likely to become the big winners in 3G era.”
to list of possible winners, first of all I must mention Apple. iPhone / iTouch / iPad plus iTunes industrial ecosystem has made the company both in time and in the future 3G mobile Internet era have occupied the leading position. This is a challenge to Apple's monopoly of China Telecom, the largest operators in the capital.
with China Mobile's “strong combination,” the breakdown of talks, in October 2009, 3G Edition iPhone officially entered China through China Unicom, city often not announced details of cooperation even though the two sides, but informed sources, China Unicom has not yet adopted into Apple's usual pattern, but give up the “APP Store” product pricing and marketing rights. Unicom value is naturally the star-driven effects caused by the terminal. in the full commercial operator behind the other two cases half a year, in November 2009, China Unicom net increase of 801,000 3G users, for the first time the growth in volume of more than 2G users and in December 3G subscriber growth continued to exceed 2G. June 23 this year new strategy smartphone conference, Li Gang, deputy general manager of China Unicom Group, openly admitted: “In the 2G era, is the operator control of the user, and now this era passed, and the open society is impossible. “
It is worth mentioning that in Apple's” APP Store “mode under the influence of three major operators were introduced software store, that is China Mobile's “Mobile Market (MM)”, China Telecom's “Wireless LAN space,” and China Unicom, “the player camps.” On the first day on the line, Wang had stressed, “MM” The most important feature is the open, and not only SP CP manufacturers and vendors open, also open to individual developers. This is a significant change. Prior, SP, or CP in order to move Monternet with a partnership, must be a registered capital of more than 20 million yuan business users, and all rules of the game developed by the operator.
When the Internet fair, open to be transplanted into 3G era, operators have learned while reinforcing the foundation wall, side wall lower height.
At present, China Unicom is to launch into negotiations with Apple iPhone 4. in May, the China Unicom has also joined hands with Lenovo Mobile launched 3G flagship model another music Phone. China Mobile and China Telecom are competing with the iPhone, Blackberry (blackberry) phone launched cooperation.
If these competitors are Apple with a heavyweight is not yet the case, come from behind Google is the Apple-matched opponents. Gartner recently released statistics show that in 2009, iPhone's global share of 14.4% raise to replace the Windows Mobile smart phone market as the world's third operating system. from 2008 to 2009, Google Android system Flying from 0.5% global share rose to 3.9%. In addition, the General Assembly at the beginning of the CES, this intelligence-based Android system, e-books, MID devices in large numbers, related products are expected to be listed in the second half of this year. in the Chinese market, and Apple's negotiations broke down, some manufacturers China Mobile, a joint research and development for the Android operating system in China that OMS (Open Mobile System), and then produce a series of OPhone phone. In addition, Google's Open Handset Alliance has received, including Huawei, Lenovo, etc. positive response of many domestic brands. is expected to be listed this year, China Mobile Android system will be over 50.
“We believe that in the next few years, Apple will be high-end mobile phone market retaining its position as the status of Big Brother, but the game did not end. “Morgan Stanley” 2009 Mobile Internet Research Report “that” because the operators, handset manufacturers and software providers will fully against Apple in the application and industrial ecology System leadership, especially in non-English speaking markets. “
Of course, Google is not only acting on the threat posed by Apple. these two Martial Law has brought together the traditional giants crisis such as mobile phones, Nokia and Intel chips. two favorites in the time of rapid growth in market share, in 2009, Nokia Symbian system market share from 52.4% in 2008 to 47.0%. In Andorid platform application development programmers into a peak in an interview that developers are more willing to focus on Apple's operating system and Google Andorid iOS developed. In his view, Symbian also ranked third reason, “This is not because the platform itself value, but because of relatively large market share of Nokia, can not be ignored “.
In order to reinforce the wall, Nokia selected the enemies become friends with the enemy. this year in February, Nokia and Intel announced that will develop Linux-based smartphone operating system MeeGo that the Nokia Maemo and the integration of Intel's Moblin body. The system will first apply to some high-end Nokia smart phones, after which there may be used for Nokia's Internet this product. The original Nokia Some Symbian system is to be and MeeGo coexistence, and this year will be a major upgrade to support touch operating experience even better.
For Intel, the mobile Internet field expansion, or more accurately said to be in transition, both tough fight, but also defensively. First of all, well, “Moore Limit” Intel can not ignore the challenges of smart phones, netbooks, and other electronic readers to create a number of terminals to one billion U.S. dollars dollars opportunities. but for cost and power consumption considerations, the large-scale production is more willing to ARM architecture-based Android system or hardware device (see the current article “ARM and Intel: ants can trip over the elephant”), this is undoubtedly a great impact of Intel chips into mobile Internet device market plans. On the other hand, Apple is infiltration by iPad camp to the PC, Intel had to attack as the best defensive strategy.
Intel Asia Pacific R & D Co., Ltd. LIANG Zhao, general manager, said column, MeeGo will be a cross-platform smartphone operating system. He said: “Based on the trend of 3C integration, we hope to create a variety of software platforms that can be embedded to form a norm.”
However, the “Nokia + Intel” before copying the model will be Win-Tel's success, surpassing Apple's first-mover advantage, or Google it? From now on, we tend to negative answer. but at least proved that the use of 3G high-speed development time for the turning point of the beginning of mobile Internet, the traditional giants of the “garden wall” is also being removed.
new winners
the technical nature of the creative destruction cycle, always give us reason to emotionally, not only because of the ups and downs of giants. More importantly, every technological progress will be associated new business model also means that will produce a number of successful new companies such as the mainframe era of the IBM, Microsoft, the PC era.
“Historical experience shows that significant technological changes tend to bring the market between the traditional giants and innovation strength of the reverse, and thus create new winners and losers. “Morgan Stanley analyst who said,” Likewise, the winner of each innovation cycle, a cycle often than the winner to create greater value. many of the new company to become the big winners, and many go The winner will go on the downhill. “
With 3G penetration and a number of SNS network, such as foreign Facebook and Twitter, the Chinese micro-happy network and Sina Bo, is gaining increasingly The higher the communications market. and mobile video is likely to increase from the desktop took over the baton, and to stimulate the explosive growth of mobile data use. In this area, domestic priorities have been cool, potatoes and many other video sites join the fight.
However, since the first year of 3G in China, both are high hopes for mobile video, mobile music and other personal applications, or mobile office, video surveillance applications such as information technology industry, have failed to reproduce 2G era of SMS as the “Golden Straw” brilliant. In Li Shihe seems, 3G vendors are hard to find time killer. He explained: “3G applications too broad, and things related to people's lives can be spend 3G, it is difficult to see a domination of the product. “
from the perspective of operators, 2G era to develop a package will depend on the development of a large number of customers have a good time to not thing of the past, 3G keywords into niche marketing, interactive, open and accurate. Zhaoshan Jiang that the operators to create a common platform for cooperation, while the parties involved to effectively manage, is the best line in the 3G era formula. He said: “Each area has a different co-operation, each company's background and areas do not even use the same model, which to many small companies and opportunities.”
Sina's “3G launch of the first anniversary of Internet users use the report” also shows that in the 3G mobile services, 44.2% of users choose to use China Telecom, China Unicom and China Mobile, the rates were 25.2% and 22.0% significantly widen the gap. but 58.8% of users made it clear that because of the different 3G standard switched network, only 19.6% of users said they would not. Therefore, operators, no matter accumulated over a large number of 2G users, 3G era can not be taken lightly, viscosity of mobile phone users do not imagine so much.
This also means that, 3G era chain migration occurred in the source of profits. “3G era the most important profit source is not communications, but running in the above content and services. “Li Yan said,” In the 2G era, voice communication is the main application, but the next major application is the mobile data communication, in the process, the industrial chain all aspects of the role it might burst and influence. content providers, service providers and equipment manufacturers, the impact on the industry chain will be a corresponding enhancement. “
In addition, some in the past in most end of the industrial chain link may have more right to speak. from Guotai Junan a research report pointed out that, due to Customization for the future of mobile phone operators will become an important strategy for the development of 3G services, retail terminals in the status of the mobile channel become increasingly important. the report says: “3G era, mobile phone sales channel function will be converted to an integrated service platform to platform, and this must end by means of retail and consumer direct contact with the carrier can be achieved, so the mobile phone industry the parties have the retail area to the mobile phone penetration, mobile phone channels, continuing to focus on the retail end down. “
According to China Telecom's latest plan, the future will be a big step to speed up the process of Socialization of 3G channels. in the introduction the Suning, Gome and other mainstream retailers directly to consumers after the end of this year, China Telecom in the socialization of the terminal sales will reach 60% ratio. China Mobile currently used in-depth customization mode, channel operators have access to more say, a mobile phone production scale and marketing strategy, terminal providers and operators can not alone decide, we must again add channels, the three discuss the decision.
3G era for application of innovative stress giants can not monopolize all means they should be given the coalition to remain more living space – which means leaving more for the future possibility of additional value. Andorid system with intelligent mobile phones, Nokia's old rival Motorola energized, profitable in the fourth quarter of last year. luster shine in the APP Store, the ascendant of the software is trying to build a store operators, terminal manufacturers and third party's win-win model .
in Zhaoshan Jiang appears around the 3G applications, telecom operators, Internet carriers and equipment manufacturers are showing a three-game state. tripartite has its own 3G plans, in a different direction, while the other size of the company is difficult to contend with this three more are to follow the general direction to go. Jobs of Apple's innovation has been a sought-after the first big successful business model, then, we also explore more business mode. He cited, for example not through software downloaded into, but encourage users to conduct transactions through the software, a commission when the transaction is also a possible future trends.
However, experts also emphasized the , although the border has been broken, but not really a new pattern emerged, the 3G industry is still in chaos. “such as Microsoft's Windows and Office, at the age they appear are not new, but before the demise of the company or a or smaller, only Microsoft's great success. this with the technical content, management may have no relationship. “Zhaoshan Jiang said,” As technology becomes more advanced and increasingly blurred boundaries between industries, the future will certainly enormous changes in the pattern, but the big change in a long time to see opportunities and risks are a lot of unknowns. “
(Yu Ding Feng correspondents will contribute to the article. )
handset business:
side down, side hope
on the business in terms of mobile terminals, 3G brought about not only the product innovation , it is an opportunity to change the power structure, but their voice is not large
license issued from 2009 to the launch of the brand logo, to a series of new phones and new services were launched topics related to 3G in 2010, and finally from the technology for years, standards of words, the evolution to a substantial operating bayonet charge. particularly in terms of mobile terminal operators, 3G brought about not only the product innovation is a force for change The timing pattern.
market research firm Strategy Analytics reports that first quarter of 2010 the total global shipments of smart phones for the 54 million more than last year's 35.9 million increased by 50% or more Global cell phone shipments have been accounted for 18% of the total. another market research organization iSuppli expects the 2010 3G mobile phone shipments will reach 42.97 million, compared with 7.2 million last year, nearly 5 times.
As a result, the mobile phone manufacturers are Maozuliaojin, hopes to re-partition 3G mobile phone market pie. But all is not imagined so smoothly. three operators add to the re-shuffle a lot of trouble, and the mobile terminal operators need to continue the three game operators to look for their personal space.
the established rules of the game
doubt, operators是移动通信产业链上的主导者。不过这种主导地位在2G和3G时代大不相同。
2G时代，由于主要运营的是基于普通网络的语音业务，整个业务市场被运营商所垄断，产业链上的其他各方话语权微弱。而3G应用最主要的特征是以数据业务为主打，以客户价值选择和传递为中心，以网络为基础，以合作作为业务提供的最重要形式，运营商大包大揽的市场格局因此“不得不”被彻底打破。
在美国，苹果公司就以其iPhone手机强大的营销能力和品牌号召力，与运营商平起平坐的讨价还价。这显然是中国三大运营商不愿意看到的局面，为了让3G终端深深打上自己的烙印，继续占据产业链的龙头地位，不至于使自己成为像苹果这样的公司的管道，中国移动、中国电信和中国联通，从一开始就在执��手机终端以运营商业务需求为导向的深度定制模式。
中国移动一位负责增值业务的人士对《商务周刊》表示，2G时代终端的发展往往是被业务发展所推动的，包括彩屏、彩信等都是业务发展催生的产物；而3G时代如果还是依靠业务推动终端，必将阻碍运营商3G业务的发展，因此，通过终端手机定制来推动运营商的3G业务是必然的选择。在他看来，运营商将特色增值业务植入手机，有助于提高用户对业务的使用量，保证促进新业务的开展，提高APRU值（单位用户平均每月贡献的业务收入）。
然而，对三大运营商推出的定制模式，手机终端商并不太认可。国内一家手机厂商相关负责人对《商务周刊》抱怨说：“三大运营商所谓的功能定制，完全是按照运营商的网络需求叠加的一些用户根本不感兴趣的功能，漠视用户的个性化需求。 ”
他表示，苹果iPhone的成功是个性化需求的成功，并非按照运营商的功能定制要求进行研发，而是由独立应用软件开发商甚至用户个人按需开发出极具应用和娱乐价值的功能软件，不同的消费者根据自己的兴趣、需求和偏好到软件商店去选择性下载。“定制无可厚非，但如果定制的主体是为了推动自身的业务，缺乏为客户需求开发的理念，那么3G在中国只会和大多数国家一样最终以失败收常”他说。
不过，对于这一模式，也有一家手机厂商的相关负责人对《商务周刊》表示可以理解：“现在为什么要定制？因为我们还没有一个特别好的模式。至于中国联通没有要求iPhone定制，是因为我们自己的产品还不够好，所以你就必须按照这个游戏规则来玩。 ”
而在摩托罗拉副总裁兼移动终端事业部亚洲产品管理总经理沈斌看来，定制的模式，是因为在这一特殊的竞争环境下，很多东西需要平衡，所以运营商需要介入手机中。
除了缺乏对用户个性化需求的考虑，让手机终端商更无奈的是，他们必须在这场游戏中不断接受运营商更多的挑剔。
在定制模式中，运营商主导终端的研发、设计与制造，提出各种方面的要求，由终端厂商负责实现。运营商与厂商之间更像是雇佣关系，运营商自己定义终端规范及业务规划，终端使用自有品牌，自己制定并实施市场推广计划。在市场营销方面，运营商可以选择在自有营业厅或合作伙伴的渠道销售这种定制终端。由于完全定制，运营商可以在其价格策略上采取多种形式，如不同程度补贴购买新机、签不同入网协议赠送不同终端等。
联想移动副总裁、OPhone项目研发负责人梁军曾经在接受《商务周刊》采访时坦承，在他们和中移动的合作中，中国移动相对强势些。比如联想移动O1手机的研发中，他就多次和中移动研究院进行沟通，并最终确定思路。“一旦中移动的策略发生变化，你就得跟着它。”梁军说。
天宇朗通的话语权可能就更弱一些了。天宇朗通相关负责人表示：“基本上还谈不上博弈，因为他们（运营商）是规则的制定者，我们目前还没有资格去和它讨价还价，未来也不见得有。”
运营商希望通过定制模式能够自如的控制产业上下游，而对终端厂商来说，其品牌被进一步边缘化。因此在3G元年的最初几个月里，手机商更多是抱观望态度，“最初我们是很困惑��，不知道该和哪个运营商合作，怎么合作”。
在观察等待了一段时间之后，各手机厂商逐渐摸透了游戏规则，也明白了3G已是大势所趋。从2009年第二季度开始，多普达就宣布不再推2G新品手机，全面转向3G手机。同一时间，宇龙酷派也将80%左右的研发精力投入3G市常
< br /> 裂变
尽管对手机厂商来说，能否在3G时代突围，现在来看还为时过早。不过针对3G的具体战略，各自已经有了相对清晰的想法，努力争取在这场没有硝烟的战场上占据有利的位置。
天宇朗通以前是以销售来划分事业部的，在2009年春节前分别成立了针对三大运营商的三个不同事业部。每一个事业部有自己的售后、研发、采购等。据天宇朗通负责人介绍，每个事业部���工的考核都是单独进行的，“因为运营商的需求比以前代理商的需求更专业、更高”。
此外，目前在3G手机上出现的所有操作系统平台，天宇朗通也都进行了产品开发，比如Windows Mobile、Symbian等。据他介绍，针对Google Android平台的产品目前还没有出来，估计在8月份将会发布。
上述天宇朗通负责人还坦承，Android是一个全新的东西，天宇朗通得重新学习。“通信行业的变化太快了，尤其是技术，很多都是颠覆性的。Windows Mobile天宇朗通花了几年的时间刚刚学好，现在就又推出了新的东西，压力实在不校”他无奈地说，“倒不是说技术的东西我们学不好，而是现在操作平台太多了，不知道该怎么选择，为了不放弃任何一个可能的用户，我们只好什么都做。 ”
好在不断的增压之下，手机厂商开始根据运营商的格局和自身实力做出战略倾向，逐渐找准自己在3G时代的定位。
摩托罗拉在中国市场已经沉寂了很长时间，甚至让人们忘却了它曾经是昔日的手机霸主。自2006年全球市场份额达到23.3%之后，摩托罗拉在手机业务上就一直没能找到正确的方向。面对市场占有率不断下滑，摩托罗拉开始放下身段，全方位自救，3G无疑成为一根举足轻重的稻草。这家公司摆出了一副进攻者的架势。“中国的3G让我们很振奋，对摩托罗拉来讲，这是一个重生的机会。”沈斌说。
据他介绍，摩托罗拉在战略方案上进行了大规模的调整，正在由一个硬件为主的公司转变为一个软硬件一体化的公司，从以语音业务为中心变为以移动互联网体验为中心。
“专注以Android为平台的智能手机是我们一个明显的转向。”沈斌表示，Android平台有着高度的开放性，而且是基于互联网的基础来开发，因此是摩托罗拉接下来的重点。
Android是Google于2007年11月宣布的基于Linux平台的开源手机操作系统。这次，摩托罗拉彻底将宝押在了Android 上。这是摩托罗拉联席首席执行官桑杰·贾上任后作出的决策。自2004年成功推出第一款超薄手机V3之后，摩托罗拉就把超薄当作发展的主线，推出一系列Razr超薄手机，以及与苹果一起开发音乐手机Rokr。然而乔布斯敏锐地看到了消费者对这款产品的厌恶，于是开始了iPhone的秘密开发，而时任CEO詹德却一意孤行，由于在触摸屏和智能手机潮流中反应迟缓，更新速度极慢，这家老牌手机巨头的市场份额不断下跌。
2008年9月22日，运营商T-Mobile在纽约正式���布世界上第一款Android手机——T-Mobile G1，该手机为台湾宏达电代工制造。2009年9月初，摩托罗拉也发布了旗下首款搭载Android操作系统的智能手机MOTO CLIQ。在沉寂许久后的这次押宝吸引了全球无数用户的目光。当年10月28日Google发布了Android 2.0 智能手机操作系统，摩托罗拉和网络运营商Verizon又共同推出了首款采用Android 2.0的手机Droid。Droid一出世就引起了市场的火暴，摩托罗拉全面拥抱Android的战略获得了如释重负般的成功。
随后，摩托罗拉毅然放弃了在多个手机操作系统上开发手机的做法，其中包括比较拿手的Symbian操作系统，目的就是集中精力开发Android平台的智能手机产品。2009年12月，摩托罗拉在中国发布了首款支持TD系统的Android智能手机。到目前为止该公司已经推出了9款基于Android平台的手机。2010年第一季度，摩托罗拉交出了一份超出业界预期的财报，实现赢利6900万美元，而在此之前，摩托罗拉曾预计第一季度将出现亏损。这已经是摩托罗拉连续第四个季度实现赢利。
不过摩托罗拉豪赌Android的弊端也开始显现。 今年1月5日，Google自有品牌手机Nexus One面市，这对于Android阵营的手机公司而言是个尴尬的消息。尽管在上市第一周，销量仅有2万部，远远低于Droid的25万部，但Google也没有花费太大的宣传费用，并且只是采用自己网站销售的模式。要知道，Droid上市前的预热和宣传营销费用就高达1亿美元。
沈斌表示对此并不担心。“尽管这是个最充满竞争的市场，不过，摩托罗拉已经占领了一个有利的位置。”他介绍，接下来摩托罗拉将与三大运营商共同推出几十款3G手机，其中除了Android系统的产品外，不排除再基于其他的平台，“但不会盲目地任何一个平台都做”。
对于国产手机品牌联想移动来说，3G更是更上一层楼的良机。2008年1月，联想集团将一直亏损的手机业务以1亿美元出售给联想控股旗下的同胞兄弟弘毅投资，联想移动开始了独立化运营之路，同时也让出了蝉联多年的国产手机老大的座位。2008年12月易观国际发布的《2008年第三季度中国移动终端市场季度监测》显示，天宇朗通以8.1%的市场份额名列中国市场第四位，成为国产手机的新头羊。此后，联想移动总裁吕岩把联想移动重塑辉煌的希望寄托在3G的突破上。
“在2G时代确确实实国产品牌在很多方面还是落后的，无论从产品的质量，还是从品牌的积累来讲。我们希望3G时代能够迎头赶上。”联想移动副总裁曾国章对《商务周刊》表示，“不是说3G一定能把国产品牌往前推，只是说给了这样的机会，因为网络的概念、应用的概念是全新的，大家在一条起跑线同时往前走。”
在潜修一年多之后，根据赛诺的数据，2009年5月起，联想移动的销量和市场份额节节攀升，并且一举超过摩托罗拉，在国内手机市场排名第三。这是自2002年盛极而衰后，国产手机品牌取得的最好座次。
联想移动在TD上的出手最大。无论是研发深度还是投入力度，其3G战略都主要围绕TD进行，可以说，TD是联想3G战略的核心。联想移动是TD产业联盟的发起者之一，也是联盟的终端组组长。除TD800和TD900手机之外，联想移动还推出了TD家庭电话、TD无线上网卡等产品，快速响应TD网络发展对终端的需求。
2009年年底，联想集团以2亿美元回购联想移动。很明显，联想是为��在移动领域大有作为。2010年年初，联想在第43届国际消费电子展（CES）上正式推出乐Phone，这是联想旗下首款移动互联网手机，旨在把互联网服务和手机终端进行结合，推动联想的移动互联网战略转型。
再次博弈
终端商和运营商的“和平共处”的时间并不长。千元3G手机，又再一次激起了两者之间的利益矛盾。
目前中国的3G用户数与2G用户数还相距甚远，并且仍有很多用户对3G概念和应用相当困惑。在工信部召开的2010年一季度通信业运行新闻发布会上，该部通信发展司副司长祝军表示，我国3G用户累计为1808万户。这个成绩并不理想，按照2009年预期，到2011年，3G用户应该发展到2.4亿户，但目前尚不到预期的1/10。另一个麻烦是，目前的大部分用户都是低端用户，对于智能手机还没有消费能力。因此，三大运营商开始将终端定制的重点集中在千元左右的中低价位3G手机上。
今年年初，中国电信就提出将重点发展“中档价位3G��机”、“千元智能3G手机”，并计划引导产业链资源向700—2000元之间的中档价位手机倾斜，以补齐3G中低价位智能机型的短板。紧随其后的是中国移动。中移动董事长王建宙在上海世博会“信息化与城市发展”论坛上表示：“中国移动在TD终端方面更需要增加的是中低价位手机，尤其是1000元以下的TD手机。”目前中国移动千元TD手机战略已进入实质阶段，算上赠送话费，TD手机最低的已不到400元了。主打高端定位的中国联通，也适时调整了其3G终端运营策略。据了解，中国联通今年将重点打造2000元以下的3G智能手机，主要分为800—1200元、1200—1600元等价位档。
很显然，为增加用户绝对量，运营商开始有意识地转向中低端手机市常然而，对运营商千元3G手机的倡议，终端厂商的兴致似乎并不高，要么是观望，要么是附和地推出一款象征性的千元手机，真正大张旗鼓来宣传的目前也只有联想移动等少数几家。
归根结底还是因为成本过高、利润太校据业内人士透露，一款货真价实的千元3G手机，仅采购成本就在900元上下，这还不包括在研发、推广上的成本。千元的3G手机比很多2G手机还要便宜，手机厂商很难有动力去为此研发新品，投入精力。至于联想移动为何敢于冲在前面，曾国章表示，联想移动希望通过千元3G形成规模效应，实现薄利多销。
但是由于运营商掌握着话语权，终端商这样的消极叫板也只是暂时的。6月23日，中国联通在京推出首批3G千元智能手机，就囊括了诺基亚、索爱、华为、天语等厂商的5款新品。沈斌表示，对于千元3G手机，摩托罗拉也是有计划的，目前正在推进之中。
但这种妥协的后遗症不校“现在运营商推出的很多款千元3G手机，在配置上并不达标，有的甚至是在原来非智能手机上进行的改装。”一位不愿意透露姓名的手机厂商对《商务周刊》说，现在运营商大力推行千元3G手机，无非就是一个噱头，“盲目鼓吹千元3G，并不利于中国3G的健康发展，一旦步入歧途，不满意的是消费者，受伤的则可能是运营商和手机厂商”。
3G应用的未来王者
2010世界杯悬念揭开，南非独特的“呜呜祖啦”在现场大发神威，场外球迷们的喜怒哀乐也有了新的发泄地。微博鼻祖“推特（twitter）”宣布，��界杯期间微博发布条数以每秒3283条创历史新高。国内的数据也显示，新浪世界杯微博每秒数峰值达1500条，腾讯微博在进球时每秒条数平均峰值更高达平时的12倍。
作为最近几年新兴起的一种网络社交服务，微博带领人们进入到一个更为自由开放、更加即时互动的世界，而3G时代的到来成为微博的助推器。来自贝叶思咨询的研究报告显示，未来3－5年，3G手机应用将会普及，随着资费的下调和移动互联网的快速发展，微博将从近两年的市场培育期走向商业的春天。
从微博到应用商店、电子商务、电子书，刚刚拉开帷幕的3G时代充满了无限可能。在《商务周刊》的采访中，所有的采访对象都给出了同一个观点——3G成功的关键在应用，而创新的核心是长尾化，各种应用“一个都不能少”。< br />
在这样的背景下，“快鱼吃慢鱼”的效应被无限放大。面向未来，我们虽然无章可依，却有迹可循。一些把人们的迫切需要与3G时代的便携性、移动性以及数据处理能力的升级结合得更为紧密的应用，正在受到消费者和运营商的热烈追捧。海量业务应用的增长则促使厂商开始构建一个更具针对性的基础架构。最终，一切的准备都指向移动互联的大场面。摩根士丹利认为，3G是移动互联网取得成功的关键，2010年将因用户普及率超过20%成为3G的“主流”拐点，具体而言，西欧和北美的拐点已经发生在2007年到2008年，除日本以外的亚太地区则将在2011年和2012年迎来拐点。
不仅仅是手机
尽管3G制式的终端已经发展出手机、上网卡、电子阅读器、智能本等多个种类，但智能手机无疑是3G元年的最大亮点。有预测认为，2010 年智能手机的发展将超越全球笔记本电脑和上网本市场，并在2012年超越整个PC王国。
让智能手机从崛起、飞跃到井喷的原因在于它已不仅仅是传统意义上的手机。除了可以承担桌面电脑的角色之外，智能手机目前还具备更多功能：首先是个人用品，即主要由一个用户使用，而且60%的用户随时随地带着它；其次是强大，2009年高端智能手机的处理能力相当于PC在2001年时的处理能力；第三是始终联网；第四是可以提供位置信息；第五是便于付款和认证。
苹果iPhone和iTouch可以被看作个人联网产品的最好例子。除了硬件之外，充分发挥智能手机上述几大功能的应用，比如社交网站（SNS）、手机搜索、移动支付和电子商务都已经表现出强大的发展势头。
在天下网技术总监王俊看来，手机SNS可以让人们随时随地的通过互联网分享日志、照片、音乐，让SNS变得更加随心所欲，这是一种可以归于禀赋的先天优势。“手机SNS对于用户来说更及时、更方便，这实际上就是未来互联网的一种特质。”他说，“未来更多的用户会更加倾向于这种互动的方式，而PC或笔记本电脑，人们会更多的应用在工作中。”
从使用价值的角度讲，无论是手机还是互联网，其产生的根源都来自于人们的社交需求，这种需求也是两者每一次技术变革的基础动力。目前的态势是，已经风生水起的传统社交网站在2009年遭遇到了强劲的对手——微博。
早在2006年推特出现后，中国就有一批“仿生”的微博网站出现。但由于政策限制，草根微博戛然而止，主流门户网站开始加入战团，��迅速白热化。2009年8月，新浪微博首先上线；今年3月20日，网易微博宣布正式上线公测；3月31日，���讯微博开始邀请部分用户参与内测；4月11日搜狐微博也开放公测。有消息称，新浪和腾讯都把微博项目上升到公司战略高度，由CEO亲自来抓。
同样基于人与社会的哲学关系，手机搜索是另外一个方兴未艾的热门应用。专家指出，用户在移动状态下最突出的信息需求，往往表现为“拉出式”，即特定情境下的查询需要，特别是在生活类信息方面。例如寻找道路、寻找餐馆、查询航班及旅馆等，以及由此延伸的预订等服务。这类服务是信息服务与电子商务的结合，与手机的高中端人群的活动特征相吻合，本身对终端屏幕没有太高要求。
< br /> 过去两年，Google来自手机的搜索流量增长了5倍，有报告预计目前来自移动设备的搜索已经超过了Google业务比例的10%。Google的高管们现在承认，他们已经向“手机业务投入重注”。
在中国，2009年手机搜索市场用户规模达1.32亿人次，环比增长103％；今年第一季度又获得27.9%的环比增长。除了Google 、百度这样的传统巨头，如宜搜、3GYY等新兴手机搜索厂商崛起的势头也十分强劲。
在手机支付领域，艾瑞咨询5月26日发布的报告显示，今年中国手机支付市场交易规模将达到98亿元，比2009年增长308%。该报告认为，由于3G网络发展及整体支付环境的改善，手机支付在未来两年将迎来爆发式增长，2012年交易规模将超过1000亿元。
在巨大的市场机遇前，各方资本展开激烈角逐。在手机支付产业链上活跃着三股力量：运营商、银联和第三方支付平台。中国移动已将手机支付业务列入2010年集团KPI（关键业绩指标）考核体系，中国电信和中国联通也相继展开举措，中国银联的新一代手机支付业务目前处于大规模试点阶段。相对这些庞然大物，如何在竞争中突围则成为独立的第三方支付平台首先面临的问题。
2009年底，第三方支付平台易宝支付实现了赢利，易宝支付副总裁余晨表示，他们的电子支付主业已经找到了差异化的道路。他介绍说，目前手机支付分为现场支付和远程支付两大类，中国移动更多是现场支付，即在手机里做个特殊芯片，把手机当信用卡来刷，是面对面的交易。而易宝支付强调的是远程支付，整个交易通过网络完成。余晨认为，现阶段第三方支付企业切入移动支付时应更关注移动远程支付，这一方面是因为移动互联网上提供的数字娱乐内容日渐丰富，对移动远程支付产生了直接需求；另一方面，移动远程支付可以让第三方支付企业有更多的创新空间和主导权。
< br /> 在他看来，手机支付的成熟期至少还需要3年。而现场支付是日韩的模式，远程支付是美国的模式。“两者并不矛盾。”他说，“有些人觉得一种方式将会替代另一种，但实际市场的需求很复杂，不同的支付产品和不同的支付服务解决方案都有机会。”
各方在手机支付上的布局，也将移动电子商务这一新兴市场托出了水面。由于3G发展对于影响移动商务的技术、基础设施、潜在用户等要件的改善，2009年中国移动商务市场交易规模同比增长超过200%，预计2012年将达108亿元。继“十一五”规划之后，“促进移动商务创新应用发展”也是工信部的一个重点方向。目前，工信部信息化司获得申报的移动商务项目���到147个，分布于30个省市区。
2007年，移动商务平台服务商亿美软通开始对3G进行技术投入。2009年3G牌照一颁发，公司即成立了移动互联事业部，推出自己的移动商��技术和应用方案，比如针对保险公司的业务员移动办公系统，给物流公司的移动数据采集系统。2010年，亿美软通又成立了数据空港事业部，推出了更加深入和复杂的3G解决方案。亿美软通CEO李岩表示，这两次架构上的大调整，就是为了加强和适应公司将来在3G业务上的竞争力。
“一个新事物的出现，尤其是这样一个重大的技术转折，应该放到一个更大的历史跨度上来看，这个坐标体系不能设定为一年。”李岩说，“移动互联网对于社会的改变，将比传统互联网对社会的改变还要大。3G是一个让中国快速进入移动互联网时代的平台，在这个过程中，3G的最大挑战就是时间。”
技术支点
按照规划，未来3年内，中国将投资4000亿元于3G网络建设，使网络足以支持4000万手机用户同时在网应用。另一方面，受3G业务开展的影响，中国使用手机上网的网民在2009年上半年就增长了32.1%。预计到2013年，全世界手机上网用户数量将超过使用电脑上网的用户数量，达到17.8亿人。在规模和应用取得快速发展的基础上，用户对于上网环境也提出了更多要求。
首先加速的是手机浏览器的竞争。作为最早加入该领域的手机浏览器厂商之一，从2008年至今，Opera已经在113种、超过1亿部手机上预装了Opera手机浏览器，合作伙伴除诺基亚、三星等国际品牌外，还有华为、海尔等中国厂商。Opear首席战略官Rolf Assev在接受《商务周刊》采访时强调：“PC浏览器很重要，但最大的市场是移动市常”
在Rolf Assev看来，移动设备不仅仅指手机，还包括平板电脑、电子书和一切有屏幕的移动设备。Opera的目标是对所有可通过“云”进行上网冲浪的设备都提供支持。“这种跨平台的浏览器是Opera的一个重要竞争优势。”他说，“我们是众多浏览器厂商中唯一能够实现对所有平台和设备提供相同用户体验的公司。”
Opera公司首席技术官Hakon Wium Lie则表示，统一内核使得Opera的跨平台浏览器平移变得非常简单。在具体应用中，任何一个平台上的改进和漏洞修正也都可以回到内核引擎上，从而让所有平台都从中受益。
Rolf Assev 也认为，统一内核有助于用户更好的上网体验。“有太多兴趣迥异的厂商都在开发自己的产品，结果就很难实现真正统一内核运行。因为厂商们并不热衷于将他们开发的新功能和漏洞修正带回核心引擎，以避免让其他竞争对手获利。”他说，“你看，当各个强劲的竞争对手们试图共用一个内核引擎时，该内核的代码会变得越来越零碎，最终的结果是各种完全不同的产品大行其事。”
过去几年，Opera的营收年增长率达到40%—50%。通过授权手机OEM厂商和运营商使用其浏览器，再基于活跃用户数量获得使用费，是Opera目前最主要的营利方式。同时，Opera也允许最终用户免费下载和使用公司的产品，再通过搜索分成和广告获得收入来源。接下来，Opera还希望在手机支付上开拓利润空间。但如同Google与百度的竞争一样，它在中国市场必须面临本土厂商的挑战。
今年5月，尽管Opera取代了苹果的iPhone浏览器���为全球最流行的移动浏览器，但在国内市场，UCWEB推出第7个版本之后，其风头赶超了风靡一时的Opera Mini。目前，UCWEB在国内的市场份额远高于Opera。
作为中国第一家在手机浏览器领域拥有核心技术及完整知识产权的公司，2005年成立的UCWEB（优视科技），名称来自���You Can Web”的缩写，意为“你能随时随地访问互联网”。由于市场的不成熟和技术等原因，这个雄心最初几年进展得并不顺利。2008年，全球互联网巨头纷纷布局移动互联网，UCWEB抓住这一机遇，成功进入到移动互联网的第一阵营。2009年，UCWEB开始赢利。
作为移动互联网的一个阶段，3G在UCWEB发展中的作用毋庸置疑。“2009年是中国3G的元年，但是对我们来说，2010年才是3G业务的元年。”UCWEB的CEO俞永福将3G的产业链总结为，端、管、云、生态环境4个环节。端是联想移动等手机终端，云就是用户最终需要访问的内容，比如百度、淘宝等，生态环境就是运营商。“现在的问题是，端访问云的时候有很多障碍，因为这个端不是PC端，而是手机端。UCWEB在这中间找到了定位，我们就是做管道的，让端能够访问到云。”他说。
目前，国内基本所有的3G手机上都安装了UCWEB软件。UCWEB还第一个作为第三方浏览器应用走进了APP Store。据俞永福透露，早在2009年UCWEB就向苹果提出了申请，但是前面3次都被拒绝，今年第4次申请才获得通过。
俞永福微笑着对《商务周刊》说：“原来大家都认为管道不重要，修路很辛苦。随着3G产业链的成熟，我们的价值越来越凸显出来。”
< br /> 在Rolf Assev看来，中国的移动浏览器厂商提供的是更接近于门户的服务，即连接简单的WAP或手机网站，而不是全网页浏览的互联网网站，Opera提供的则是完全的互联网浏览体验，把上网选择权留给用户。
但俞永福认为，拥有独立浏览器内核只是一个必要条件，不是充分条件。手机天生具有“屏幕孝单手输入、操作系统分散”的特点，在中国当前的互联网发展环境下，不可能让用户还像PC上网那样去输入网址、密码，“除了加强手机浏览器本身的技术和功能研究，客户推送的价值是未来的一个趋势”。
目前，Opera在中国的团队接近40人，其中绝大部分都是研发工程师。本土研发团队不仅负责Opera产品的汉化和本土化，也参与到下一代引擎和平台的开发过程。Opera这样做的目的不仅是要更贴近中国用户乃至亚洲用户，也是为了加强在内核和产品方面的竞争力。
但Hakon Wium Lie承认，尽管速度在浏览器的竞争中非常重要，却并不是唯一重要的因素。在手机上网形成规模效应之后，网络钓鱼、病毒、木马等网络安全隐患又给电子商务、网络支付等应用的开展造成了障碍。与PC上的互联网一样，手机上网也需要从可用向可信阶段发展。“我们考虑了所有因素，在保护用户隐私的同时，还要保证能够迅速修复网络安全问题。”他说，“我们一直致力于让用户觉得使用Opera是安全的。”
卡巴斯基移动安全业务总监邱耀武也表示，PC安全包括木马、邮件攻击、网关攻击等，这些问题在手机上同样会出现。卡巴斯基实验室研究发现，手机安全软件现在已经开始呈现互联网化的趋势。从2009年6月到2010年6月，其检测到的所有针对智能手机的恶意软件中，有35%都可以利用互联��来进行传播。
这个全新的手机杀毒软件市场同样诱人，国外的卡巴斯基、迈克菲，国内的金山、瑞星等都推出了自己的手机版杀毒软件。但与杀毒软件商们对于手机病毒的同仇敌忾不同的是，一些手机生产商和专家对此提出了疑义。有开放商在接受记者采访时就指出，手机操作系统基本以Linux核心，应用程序一般运行在普通用户权限下，而PC平台的使用者一般都���以管理员权限登录，应用程序也运行在管理员权限下，所以PC上病毒传播的可能性要比手机大得多；其次，手机操作系统在设计上是安全性高于易用性，很多功能受限，比如用户不能随意安装程序，也限制了手机病毒的传播；此外，手机操作系统种类和版本也比PC平台要多得多，即使出现漏洞，也很难达到完全自动化传播的程度。
当然，或许更麻烦的一点在于，PC杀毒软件的病毒特征库模式复制到手机上很不现实，PC杀毒时运行速度都大受影响，搁到手机上还不当场死机？手机杀毒需要的是一种完全不同的技术框架，目前人们还没有看到它的出现。< br />
真正的蓝海
从根本上说，各方巨头在3G时代大动干戈的原因在于移动互联网这一真正的蓝海。“3G元年”其实宣告的是大规模移动互联时代的正式来临。
俞永福强调，目前把3G等同于移动互联网的认识是错误的。“移动互联网是一种生活方式，也是一种产业模式，3G只是移动互联网必经的初级阶段，移动互联网是3G的未来。”在他看来，桌面互联网是一个全球化的市场，而移动互联网则是典型的区域化市场，各个国家都不同。< br />
事实上，移动互联网代表着五大应用的融合，即3G、社交、视频、网络电话和移动装置，后面四种具体产品在3G技术背景下发展更为迅速。摩根士丹利在《2009移动互联网研究报告》中指出了新的技术周期与过去略有不同：在用户增长方面，其发展速度比以往周期的发展速度更快；就用户机会而言，其规模更大；它具有全球性，每个区域的移动连接、期望、需求和收入水平都对此有所贡献；在这个过程中，美国抓住了领头地位，大量年轻但经验丰富的世界一流技术专家占据关键的一席之地。
“移动互联网的投资周期将追随桌面互联网的模式——从基础设施到平台然后到应用程序、服务及内容，我们目前正处于这一阶段，随之而来的便是零售及商务。”摩根士丹利的报告说。随着互联网向移动方向发展以及无线数据使用的迅猛增长，无线服务供应商的成功关键在于规模，手持设备制造商的战场是智能手机。在平台领域，至今还没有哪家平台公司会像前一个周期的IBM、DEC以及微软那样在软硬件上获得主导地位。由于移动消费者正以前所未有的快速步伐接受新的以网络为基础的软件应用程序，那些能够在新计算技术平台上投资、并拥有创新应用程序/服务及内容的公司,往往能够建立起巨大的用户基础及循环收入。
目前的产业角逐者包括了三大主要力量，即运营商、互联网企业和终端厂商。其中，运营商的发展策略是整合产业链资源，将最好的互联网服务引入到手机上；互联网企业则是专注于如何将优秀的桌面互联网产品和服务移动化；终端厂商的着力点则是围绕终端打造综合移动互联网服务能力。三股力量最终竞争的焦点，还是在于找到并掌握用户的“性感地带��。
< br /> “过去的几十年，全球的IT产业经过了几个王朝。”俞永福说，“1990年代以前，这个王朝的关键词是硬件，王者是IBM；1990年代，这个王朝的关键词是PC和软件，王者是微软，而联想抓住机会成为这个时代中国的王者；过去十年，关键词是互联网，王者是Google，中国的王者是腾讯；接下来的十年，关键词是无线，真正的王者尚未出现。”
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